Philosophy Sections 7.1 & 7.2 Essay

1. What are the requirements for knowledge? 4.What is Plato’s allegory of the cave supposed to demonstrate? Plato’s allegory of the cave is supposed to demonstrate not only the human situation in general but Socrates’ life in particular. Socrates glimpsed the true nature of reality and tried to convince the inhabitants of Athens that they didn’t know what they thought they knew. The objects that cast shadows on the wall represent what Plato considers to be the truly real objects: the forms. 5.What is Descartes’ dream argument? Descartes’ dream argument is as followed: 1) We can’t be certain that we’re not dreaming. 2) If we can’t be certain that we’re not dreaming, we can’t be certain that what we sense is real. 3) If we can’t be certain that what we sense is real, we can’t acquire knowledge through sense experience. 4) Therefore, we can’t acquire knowledge through sense experience. According to Descartes, you can’t rule out the possibility that you’re dreaming so you’re senses can’t give you knowledge of the external world. 8. Why do empiricists believe that there are no synthetic a priori truths? Empiricists believe that there are no synthetic a priori truths because they believe that sense experience is our only source of knowledge of the external world. 9.How does Kant explain the possibility of synthetic a priori truths? Kant explained the possibility of synthetic a priori truths by examining the method of inquiry used by mathematicians. Kant found that what makes it possible for mathematicians to discover such truths is that they study the principles the mind uses to construct mathematical objects. Section 7.2 (3 and 4) 3. What is representative realism? Representative realism is the doctrine that sensations are caused by external objects and that our sensations represent these objects. 4. What is the distinction between primary and secondary qualities? The distinction between primary and secondary qualities is that while secondary qualities exist in the mind not in the actual object, primary qualities are possessed by material objects.

The Leap

Francisco Mata Mrs. Harschlip Eng 102 â€Å"The Leap† In James Dickey’s poem â€Å"The Leap,† he tells about his memory of a â€Å"thin/and muscular, wide-mouthed, eager to prove† (21-22) girl, Jane MacNaughton. He talks about how she goes from being, â€Å"the fastest runner in the seventh grade†, (3) to a â€Å"Mother of four. † (28) Jane who spurned the earth, as a seventh grade runner, left behind the â€Å"slow-footed yokels† (44) in her cloud of dust. The playground champion is finally overcome by reality. She returns to dust as a victim of the â€Å"eternal process†. During a school dance, Jane â€Å"with a light/Grave Leap†, touches the end of a paper ring.Dickey sees this as a farewell to childhood and a new beginning into adulthood. She is well respected by others and has self-respect, at least enough to leap to touch the paper chain in front of her classmates. She is a young, strong girl and has a world of oppo rtunities at this time in her life. He describes her as the, â€Å"the fastest runner in seventh grade. † (3) This implies that she is a girl who capable of accomplishing any dreams she wishes. Dickey knew and admired Jane, he was â€Å"nailed to the ground†, unable to escape his feelings for her ever since the seventh grade.He feels a connection to her when she touches the paper ring hanging from the ceiling. He says that she â€Å"touched the end of something I began. † (47) He does not make it sound as if he had a personal relationship with her; however he says that she should hold on, â€Å"to that ring I made for you. † (51) He wants the Jane of his school age memory to hang on to the paper ring so that he will always remember her as a young, â€Å"muscular, wide-mouthed, eager to prove,† (22) girl that is capable of doing anything. He uses the ring as a symbol in his memory, as a way to keep her alive so that he does not have to cope with her eath. The ring can also be a symbol of marriage or companionship. He uses this first leap to represent Jane in all of her brilliance, as he remembers, so that he will not have to face the fact that she is not who she used to be and to honor her as the outgoing seventh grader who was willing to live life to the fullest. He does not go into detail to describe the second leap. This may be because he knows more about her in her childhood, or it may be because he does not want to know about her death at length. When she commits suicide, he knows she is not the same person that he once knew; she is now a, â€Å"mother of four. (28) She has changed, but it has not been for the better because she may have had a hard life. One day she was unable to handle the pressures of her life any longer and committed suicide. He says, as he holds the newspaper containing the article of her suicide, â€Å"that I held / without trembling a picture of her lying cradled / in the papery steel as though ly ing in the grass. † (30-32) It is not that he does not care about her death; he just cannot face her death and this is why he does not tremble. She is hardly the same person to him, and so he is able to save the image of her first leap.He will always use this one image as her identity, full and alive, to him. These two leaps are different, but are used to represent the same idea. Jane leapt in order to express her sense of freedom in the first leap. She leapt with strength; she showed to everyone around her that she was very alive, free and capable. Yet, the second leap was a cry for help, a searching for freedom. By taking this second leap she was able to become free by death. Her life was hard by, â€Å"some boy who did not depend/On the speed of foot, caught and betrayed her,† (40-41) and the heartache was too much for her to handle, so she took the leap so she can be free.The two instances are so different that he is able to separate them in his mind and supplement his memory for childhood Jane, who he saw gracefully leaping with a sense of ambition to touch the paper ring and the Jane of modern reality, who leapt to her death from a hotel window to rest in the, â€Å"papery still† (32) of a taxi cab, still graceful as â€Å"though lying in the grass. † (32) Work Cited Dickey, James. â€Å"The Leap†. Literature and the Writing Process. Ed. Elizabeth McMahan, Susan X Day, Robert Funk, and Linda S. Coleman. 9th ed. 2011. pg 630. Print.

Putting Christ Last Article Example | Topics and Well Written Essays - 250 words

Putting Christ Last - Article Example The man seems convinced, but he excuses himself to go and bury his father. In response, Jesus told him that the dead should bury their dead. Another man was too anxious to follow Christ, to the extent of openly portraying his willingness. However, his heart and volunteerism is blocked by the desire of minding about his relatives.1 The church members often put him as the last option; hence, the excerpt is very relevant to the modern Christianity. They first fulfil their life issues then Christ comes last. For example, one focuses on his or her needs prior to paying the tithes. Prayers are an issue, as people never have enough time to pray. Church attendance is also poor due to ‘unavoidable issues.’ All these aspects illustrate how the Christians have put Christ last. Even sinners put Christ last. They are fully immersed into sin and it remains difficult for them to come out of it. The pleasures of the world have made them not to have a resting place for Christ. They want to enjoy the pleasure of the world for a bit longer. They are at the epitome of peer pressure, fearing what their friends would comment if they turn to Christ. With reference to Luke 9:62, the segments of the population that fail to prioritize Christ in their lives should not be in the kingdom of God. If one fails to recognize Christ while, on earth, Christ will also fail to recognize that person in heaven. We ought to put God first; he is a jealous God and pleasures in those who put Him

Friendship (also loneliness and shyness) Essay Example | Topics and Well Written Essays - 750 words

Friendship (also loneliness and shyness) - Essay Example I have been able to assess the fact that a person comes across different friends in his life and that it is with time and maturity a person acquires mental compatibility with a friend. When I was in elementary school, I had friends in my class. The basic aim of friendship at that level of my life was basically to go to school and play with my friends during breaks. Friends were there to spend time with during lunch time and to discuss the different cartoons that we watched. We used to eat our lunch together and this was the level of enjoyment at that age. With time things change and the meaning of friendship changed in high school. I had a lot of friends but there was a group of very close friends. The meaning of friendship had matured and it was no more restricted to eating lunch together or playing games. It had rather acquired a broader perspective. Friends were there during difficult times. I could now discuss and share my problems with my friends and seek for their advice and as sistance in the matters where they could be of help. The same implied to them as they could also come and discuss the issues that they had. We had similar opinions and thoughts on a lot of matters but there were discussions and arguments on issues where we differed in our stands. This clearly implied the fact that we had a lot of similarities but we had our own opinions and thoughts and hence we did differ in our personalities from one another. Loneliness A good social circle and friends are very important for a person. If a person does not have a good social life, he tends to become lonely. The reduction in the number of friends is also associated with less people to interact with. At the same time, it also means that a person has less people of his age group to discuss his problems with. A lower level of social interaction can prove to lay a long lasting effect on a person’s personality. My cousin who is only 14 years old has problems in interacting with people. He does not have many friends and this can be counted as one of the reasons why he does not like going to school. This was not the case when he was in primary school. He was a bright kid and he loved to engage in play activities. His teachers would always praise him and they suggested that he should apply for moving a grade ahead owing to his increased capabilities than the children of his age. His annual reports always made his parents proud and they used to discuss his future options. Things changed when he entered high school as this school was in another state. His family had to move from the state where he completed his primary education. He became lonely in this new atmosphere. He did not have friends as all the children had their own circle of friends by then. He was lonely and he totally changed from what he actually was. My cousin could not cope up with this loneliness. He stopped interacting with his family as well and became a very quiet child. He was not as active as he used to be when he was a child. This was followed by the fact that his grades dropped in school. He had to get enrolled in summer classes but that did not help much. He did not like going to school. I have now analyzed the fact that the problem behind all his problems is basically his loneliness. The fact that he could not interact with children of his ag

Discovery and settlement of the new world Coursework

Discovery and settlement of the new world - Coursework Example Their occupation mainly consisted of hunting and farming in a limited manner as the invention of tools and wheel were not made in those times. However, they used few primitive tool and gold and silver for ornaments. None of the tribes had written language. They used pictures to convey their messages or make a record of important events and for long distance messages, used smoke signals and sign language. On the other hand, the tribes in south like Aztec and Inca were more developed and furnished with equipment formed a cultured society. They were at an advance level in mathematics and architecture, due to which proper cities and towns were constructed and great stone temples were made to worship. They had a written language. A common viewpoint about these southern tribes is they had a high level of cultural advancement comparatively to any country of the Western Europe. The disagreement in Anglican Church found its way across Atlantic oceans. The puritans especially were in tolerant about beliefs different than them. They argued that the religious practices of Church of England should not resemble to Catholicism. The aim of British Colonies was to practice religion as to worship God with freedom. However, this approach was only adapted by early colonists, which was not extended further. There were four main New England colonies, Massachusetts, Rhode Island, Connecticut, and New Hampshire. Later on the survival of English colonies depended on them In 1629, Massachusetts was founded by few puritans of common faith. About one thousand men, women and children started their journey towards America, as they were distressed to see the moral life and future of religion in England. They came to America to practice religion freely and in turn forced the residents to practice the same belief. They punished, whipped and persecuted those who did not belief in puritan faith. Many settlers were forced out from their lands for not practicing those beliefs, which eventually set tled in Rhode Island. In 1644, Roger Williams was banished from the Massachusetts colony due to his belief in, God can be worshipped in many ways. He did not thrust puritan believes on the Indian tribes due to which he was ordered to ship back England but he managed to escape and found Rhode Island, which was the first colony where any or every religion was acceptable to practice. The dissenters were forced to live here and some later on moved to Connecticut. Thomas hooker was the most popular Puritan preacher in the Massachusetts colony, who formed Connecticut colony in the valley of Connecticut river .He angrily fought for religious rights and in 1662 was granted with the charter by the Anglican Church. A written plan was documented for the four colonies and presented to the government by Connecticut. The first big battle among settlers and Native Americans was also fought here and was won bye English settlers. New hemisphere was founded in 1679 with the consent of English King an d it became a royal colony. At one time it was part of Massachusetts. The immigration of tribes, from a nonjudgmental perspective was held acutely. Past events flowed in front our eyes as a story being told. The determination and efforts put by daring explorers who ventured over the world and discovered new lands and exotic things, is a note to be marveled upon. With few sources in hand and limited knowledge about the whereabouts of final destiny these explorers are

Triple Bottom Line Essay Example | Topics and Well Written Essays - 3000 words

Triple Bottom Line - Essay Example The triple bottom line abbreviated (TBL) is a framework of accounting that utilizing the three dimensions performance module: financial, environmental and social spheres. This negates from traditional frameworks of business reporting through the incorporation of environmental and social parameters. These parameters utilisation as measurement means have difficulties that hinder their appropriate assigning in various fields. John Elkington who coined the term in 1994, endeavoured to measure sustainability in the mid 20th century through encompassing of a new measure to evaluating performances in corporate America (Elkington 1994, p. 92). This framework, known as the triple bottom line (TBL), involved going beyond traditional profits measuring strategies, as well as investment returns and shareholder value allowing for the inclusion of social dimensions and environmental (Elkington 1994, p. 93). Through putting emphasis on focus on comprehensive investment results, triple bottom line serves as an important support tool for goal sustainability maintenance. Triple bottom line Interest has seen growth especially in accounting in the lines of non-profit and profit oriented organisations as well as government sectors. Many firms including non-profits have incorporated TBL sustainability frameworks in performance evaluation. Similarly federal, local and state levels of governments have also adopted the modules in the management of currencies and such like activities. This paper seeks to analyse the concept of TBL while highlighting the practicability of the same in the business context on a global level through the utilisa tion of the diverse literature currently available on the issue. The dimension of the TBL commonly labelled the three Ps: profits, planet and people have proven to be a vital part of business integration since their formulation by John Elkington. Even before this pioneer started the idea of TBL concept for the manipulation

Cause and Effect Research Paper Example | Topics and Well Written Essays - 750 words

Cause and Effect - Research Paper Example The causes of advertising for blood donations in the past thirty years are the high demand for blood, the need to strengthen civic engagement beliefs, the reinforcement of social norms, and the effectiveness in appealing to different donor motivations, while the effects of advertising for blood donation differ, depending on the kind of motivations used, although studies showed that the most effective blood donation advertisements are those that appeal to altruism and social norms. Two of the contributing causes of advertising for blood donation are the high demand for blood and the improvement of civic engagement. The American Red Cross reported that only five percent of the eligible population donates blood, when it is estimated that almost 95 percent of all Americans will need blood in their lifetime (Windley, 2006, p.1). In her dissertation â€Å"Young Blood: Persuading Young People to Give Blood By Applying Concepts of Self-Perception and Social Norms Theories To Recruitment Ads,† Windley (2006) stressed that many first-time donors do not come back as repeat donors, especially when they are motivated initially through pressure from their family and friends. Misje et al. (2005), in their journal article â€Å"Motivation, Recruitment and Retention Of Voluntary Non-Remunerated Blood Donors: A Survey-Based Questionnaire Study,† noted from their review of literature that social pressure is not enough to sustain repeated blood donations (p.236). T hese sources agreed that social pressures are not sustainable forces in the voluntary blood donation settings, and they indicated the importance of advertisements in attracting blood donors. Local and international health organizations are then beefing up the call for blood donation through different marketing campaigns. Aside from the demand for blood supply, declining sentiments of civic engagement also drives advertisements that recruit blood donors, based on the study of Windley (2006). Different generations

Philadelphia Fight Organization Assignment Example | Topics and Well Written Essays - 1000 words

Philadelphia Fight Organization - Assignment Example Besides just being concerned with the development of research and treatments, the organization provides a home to prevention, education and providing more information services concerning the disease. It has AIDS library and carry out a number of projects which are related to the disease as well as activism in combating the disease (Philadelphia Fight Organization, 2012). The organization is not big enough and it has its operations centered at Philadelphia where it provides the free services to the affected. The organization being a charitable and non profit organization, its hands are tied and can not get involved to activities which can make it get income. This has made the organization to depend entirely on the services of the volunteers which to a certain extent has some challenges. The reliance of the organization to volunteers has made it not to have clear human resource policies making it have challenges when it comes to human resource developments. The staffs do not undergo th orough recruitment since there is lack of money to pay the well qualified personnel. This has been the big challenge that the organization has been experiencing since its inception. The major legal concern of the organization is how to get justice done for the HIV/AIDS victims as many of them are suffering as a result of actions which were beyond them. Some of the victims of HIV they are working with were subjected to that status as result of rape by gangs which were beyond the patient’s control. The organization finds it challenging to get justice for these victims owing to the nature of events which is very difficult to follow. Similarly, the organization lacks the professionalism in dealing with legal challenges affecting the organization as many of the staffs are from medical field and don’t know more about law. This has rendered a legal challenge which the organization has to deal with in attempts to promote justice (Philadelphia Fight Organization, 2012). The org anization can competently deal with these legal concerns through setting a separate entity of staffs which deals with legal matters. This will help in dealing with the legal concerns which will see justice done to the patients who felt victims as a result of actions which were beyond their control. For this exercise to be effective, the organization needs to get experts through recruitment of staffs that can diligently deal with these issues and solve them. It also requires the organization to have money which will be used in recruiting staffs who will be addressing legal issues which are concern to the organization. Addressing legal concern which affects the employees needs experts hence this can only be dealt with through recruiting those suitable for it. The organizations need to take a number of actions into consideration in order to expand into other markets in the international arena. The organization needs to embark on the qualified staffs within its department’s in or der to get good and efficient services. This can begin from recruiting and training of staffs responsible for the human resource in order to equip them with the task they will be carrying out. Training of the staffs will also increase the competency among the human resource personnel which will intern be reflected to other departments resulting to quality of services being rendered by the organization. When the staffs are equipped more so

Mandatory Assessment is not the Same as Mandatory Mediation, but Both Essay

Mandatory Assessment is not the Same as Mandatory Mediation, but Both Concepts Undermine the Family Mediation Process - Essay Example In family law, mandatory mediation can be defined as a situation whereby couples are instructed by a court to resolve a dispute by attending meetings with a mediator..The essence of the meetings is to help couple to reach a compromise deal on the disputed issue. Court mandated mediation is envisaged to be a facilitated negotiation by the aggrieved parties through a mediator to unravel the underlying issues and possibly reach a fair settlement. In the United Kingdom, mandatory mediation can either be categorical or discretionary. Categorical mandatory mediation refers to cases whereby statutes provide that certain cases must undergo Alternative Dispute Resolution while discretionary mediation refers to cases where the presiding judge decides the cases the should undergo mediation. On the other hand, mandatory assessment is the continuous process of gathering information from various sources to help evaluate the most appropriate strategies for achieving the well being of the child and safety. The process of mandatory assessment involves a court appointed assessor who is required to work with the concerned family to assess the conditions on the ground. The assessor can also seek information from other sources deemed necessary and after the evaluation, the final report given to the court is critical in reaching the final judgment. Although mandatory assessment and mandatory mediation are different, both are compulsory dispute resolution modes aided by a third party. The report analyzes the impacts of the mandatory assessment and mandatory mediation in the context of family law. After evaluation of these effects, it is clear that these processes undermine the family mediation process instead of helping in the dispute resolution. Particularly, these concepts go against the fundamental principal of voluntary resolution of disputes and are also counterproductive especially in issues involving domestic violence. From this perspective, these mandatory processes may actua lly introduce new complications in the justice system on top of those already caused by the traditional system. Non Voluntary Nature The principal argument against mandatory assessment and mandatory mediation is that they impinge on the right to self determination. Mediation is a voluntary decision making process and every individual has the right to self determination. Hence the term â€Å"mandatory mediation† is itself oxymoronic. Coercion into mediation leads into serious reservations concerning the mediation process itself and its outcome. It has been argued that if couples are coerced into mediation, then there is a high probability that they may be coerced within the mediation itself1. She further opines that the preceding stages to mediation are a determinant of the direction that the mediation will take. Once a couple has entered into the mandatory mediation process, there is a high expectation placed upon them to reach an agreement. According to Hayes, the heavy expe ctation to reach an agreement may alter the meaning of mediation to the aggrieved parties. In the seminal cased Halsey v. Milton Keynes., [2009] EWCA 15, [2009]2, the court decided that â€Å" to oblige truly unwilling parties to refer their disputes to mediation would be to impose an unacceptable obstruction on their right of access to courts.† This court ruling shows that indeed there is a great controversy over the implementation of mandatory mediati

Riordan Manufacturing Key Stakeholders Essay Example for Free

Riordan Manufacturing Key Stakeholders Essay There are several stakeholders at Riordan Manufacturing to gather requirements from to provide a clear picture of the final project. The first stakeholder to gain input would come from the Chief Operations Officer, he was the requestor of the system upgrade, is responsible for the budget, which includes payroll. The Chief Legal Officer oversees the legal aspects of the human resources programs. The individual human resources managers within the individual facilities are the stakeholders who recruit and handle benefits for employees. Each facility has an accountant that oversees payroll and bonuses as well as the payroll specialist (Apollo, 2011). Information-gathering techniques and systems analysis tools Interviews will be the first form of information gathering that will be used. Interviews and survey forms are a very effective way to gather information. Through the user’s impressions, personal experiences, task related ideas, and attitudes on the current system can give a baseline for needs. The interviews will aid in forming a definition of the scope of the system requirements. Interviews will also allow the system analyst to understand what boundaries by which to take into consideration (Havelka and Lee, April 25, 2002). A checklist will be prepared prior to any interviews. It is important to prepare an interview guide so that interviewer knows what order to ask questions and the amount of time that should be spent on each area of the interview. The interview guide will include open-ended questions that will allow for follow-up discussions. The guide can also double as an outline for a summary of what comes out of the interviews (Havelka and Lee, April 25, 2002). The second information gathering technique will be to observe the stakeholders. Many managers plan their day without taking into account interruptions from phone calls or meetings. During the interview stage, an employee may state he or she is busy with e-mails throughout the day, but by observing the employee, it could be determined that he or she receives minimal e-mails. Observing behavioral measures allow for a more accurate reflection of current system operations and future requirements (Havelka and Lee, April 25, 2002). Gathering and analyzing procedures and other company documents is the third information gathering technique. Close examination of the systems and organizational documentation is another way to determining system requirements. This can lead to discovering defined details relating to current systems and the organizations they support. By analyzing documentation, the analyst can identify problems with existing systems, such as redundant steps or incomplete information. Analyzing allows for determining organizational direction that can influence information systems requirements, such as attempting to link corporate managers to local managers. Analyzing also allows for the identification of titles and names of important individuals who have an interest to the current existing systems (Havelka and Lee, April 25, 2002). Key factors too help ensure the information required for the project is gathered successfully. The first step in the information system development or modification process is to gather requirements. Information system requirements are frequently unreliable and insufficient. The reasons for failure usually are at the fault of management and people involved. Not necessary due to technology but more so due with improper planning (Havelka and Lee, April 25, 2002). Utilizing JAD (Joint Application Design) technique will improve the determining systems requirement process. JAD is a structured process where analysts, managers, and, users work together for several days in a series of intensive meetings to review system requirements. Organizations gather affected individuals that are affected by information systems together to agree on system requirements and design details (Valacich, 2012). A good facilitator should be able to keep the focus of stakeholders and the IT (Information Technology) department participants on the goal of specifying the system requirements. Another option managers have to improve interaction is the care in assignment of members to the project team. The selection of stakeholders and IT personnel with personal interest in the new system improves the chances for success (Havelka and Lee, April 25, 2002). Another factor to ensure success is to train the IT personnel on the system’s applications and processes. How well the IT personnel understand the systems is extremely relevant to the success of system implementation. The involvement of IT personnel, who have knowledge regarding the application requirements, increases the ability of the team to correctly and quickly specify the requirements. Experienced IT personnel on a team help ensure others understand terminology and have more of an understanding of the stakeholders needs (Havelka and Lee, April 25, 2002). Project scope and Why it is Important Project scope defines the goals of the project and the budget of both time and money that has been allocated to achieve the objectives. For the best results to be achieved, both the definition and the allocated budget must be precise and detailed. A good process scope document will define specifically the tasks to be completed or the delivered results. The project scope is important because it will define the specific date for which the deliverables will be due and list the allocated budget for them. The project scope will also list specific items not part of the project scope and are excluded from the work to be delivered (Reh, 2013). Areas of project feasibility that are examined in the analysis phase of the SCLC Project feasibility is examined during the systems analysis and requirements definition phase of the SCLC. This phase involves the setting of specific project goals, which defines the functions and operations, to be included in the project to achieve completion of the project. The project goals should be based on the analysis of the stakeholders information needs. This phase can also be called the feasibility study because it also defines personnel assignments, funds, schedule, goal dates, performances, and interfaces (India, May 18, 2012). References Apollo Group, Inc. (2011). Riordan Manufacturing. Retrieved from BSA/375 course. Havelka, D. and Lee, S (April 25, 2002). Critical Success Factors for Information Requirements Gathering. Retrieved from http://www.techrepublic.com/article/critical-success-factors- for-information-requirements-gathering/1060122 Reh, J. (2013). Project Scope. Retrieved from http://management.about.com/od/PMterms/g/Project-Scope.htm Rose India (May 18, 2012). System Development Life Cycle. Retrieved from www.roseindia.net Valacich, J. S., George, J. F., Hoffer, J. A. (2012). Essentials of systems analysis and design (5th ed.). Upper Saddle River, NJ: Pearson Education

Swift Courier Company | Analysis

Swift Courier Company | Analysis Introduction to the Company: SWIFT courier company is a reputed Parcel and Document courier company. Operating since 1989, it has offices in Oxford, Reading, Swindon and Newbury. It has grown exceptionally since its inception and now caters to the entire UK population. It also provides Logistics and Supply Chain Management solutions to some of the leading players in the business like DHL. It is also a preferred corporate partner with corporate giants like Herma UK Ltd., Epic data, Stryker UK Limited among others. SWIFT has tie ups with a number of global players, ensuring that its customers can also make international shipments (SWIFT Couriers, 2009). SWIFTs success hinges on its values of integrity, team work, customer centric business operation and providing a platform for people development. Services Portfolio: SWIFT provides three standard services both to the general public and corporate clients alike: Same day Parcel delivery and Courier Services: A premium service wherein shipments are collected and delivered across to any UK destination on the same day. Next Day Parcel Delivery and Courier Services: Shipments are collected and delivered to any location in the UK within one business days time. International Parcel Delivery, Courier and Freight Services: A high end service offering catering to international logistics demands. The company operates its own fleet of transport vehicles and also uses third party networks in service delivery. The firm is highly responsive to market trends and provides a fleet of vehicles for business operations. It has on its range Small courier Vans, Mercedes Vitos, Mercedes Luton Tail Lift, 4ft Arctic Lorries, Mercedes extended sprinters and 7.5 tonne lorries. It offers both branch and on line bookings. Customers can choose to place their orders at any of their 4 branches, over the phone or online through the companys website. It allows for the online baggage tracking and has a tie up with Prudential Insurance to provide lost baggage insurance to all its shipments. The company has an impressive pricing strategy and is one of the low cost service providers operating in the same day delivery market. It has secured numerous corporate partnerships and is now an official carrier for a large number of manufacturing firms, solely relying on its competitive pricing. Operations and its cycle: SWIFT has close to two thousand employees working in its operations department and another 400 providing supporting functions to the operations team. The companys Operations cycle can broadly be classified into four divisions: Sell: The marketing team is responsible for lead generation and execution of deals. For the Operations staff, this is the input for their functioning. Source: The purchasing department is concerned with the acquisition of the transport fleet and other equipment necessary to provide the service. The staffing function is outsourced to professional recruiters who provide the necessary human capital. Build: The operations staff is now concerned with the delivery of shipments. For domestic shipments, the operations team ensures the product delivery. For international destinations, the network management team works with third party operators to have the package delivered. Delivery: The online tracking system generates an automatic delivery confirmation to the customer. The Operations function starts with a delivery consignment being keyed into the companys ERP. Depending on the packages dimensions, its weight and the delivery timelines, the ERP routes the details to the respective teams. The tagged pick up team then picks up the package and transports it to the take away shuttle points. Various packages are then sorted at the shuttle point according to their destinations. Using the Mercedes Vitos, they are all routed to their base collection centres. The bases currently operating are Gatwick Airport- for international consignments, Lambeth for domestic same day deliveries and Oxford for domestic nest day deliveries. Air carrier fleet then transports these packages to the local distribution centres- Edinburgh for Scotland destinations, Cardiff for Whales and London for domestic. From these distribution facilities, the packages are finally routed to their respective destinations using a range of road carrier fleet. The Operation function ends when the recipient signs digitally on the collection barometers upon the receipt of the consignment. At Swift, Operations assumes the most critical of the business functionalities and is the organizations Bread Earner. It has a layered relationship with the other departments and works in tandem with them. The Operations Function consists of two teams- IT and Fieldwork. The IT team is the brain of the company and does all the calculations for finding the most effective route to deliver a package. It encompasses a strategic and an operational role. It literally details the specified route for each shipment and the fieldwork simply follows the channel to deliver the shipment. Company Vs. Market performance: The UK logistics services business has grown multi fold over the past decade. The market has seen over a hundred new entrants, a majority of them being successful global brands. The industry has seen a lot of players create a mark in the niche segments as well as a few firms like Fedex and UPS, spread their wings with diversified and customized offerings to all segments. In 2004, the industry has posted 7% growth rate, 10% in 2005,11% in 2006, 12% in 2007 and 9% in 2008. 2009 has been a dreaded year. The current economic downturn, coupled with the freezing consumer spending has contacted the market; diminishing its value by 15%. According to Highbeam Research Consultants, the UK courier market will grow to 127% by 2011. SWIFT has grown quite well in this lucrative market. The company, over the past two decades has been posting impressive growth rates each year. The company has posted a 15% growth in bottomlines in 2004, 13% in 2005, 16% in 2006, 5% in 2007. It has declared a negative growth of 5% in 2008 and 25% in 2009. Though the company has fared well for the better part of the last decade, it has been sluggish over the past two years. A recent survey conducted by the company on the cause of its declining market share has shown that customer dissatisfaction is the main reason for this dismal performance. Problem Identification: SWIFT runs its operations in traditional ways using very little automation and a lot of manual intervention. The scale of its business, currently, does not support complete automation as by firms like Fedex, UPS and DHL. This makes the functioning error prone. Numerous packages have been misplaced and delivered outside the timelines, resulting in a lot of customers looking for alternative operators. SWIFT has even lost 3 corporate clients over the last 3 years. A lot of these errors have been traced to the point of collections- the earliest part of the supply chain. Lack of clearly defined routing procedures mean that a package to be delivered to London could easily be mistagged to be delivered to Glasgow. The mistake could only be identified when the package has been delivered to the regional collection point in Edinburgh. It then has to be returned back to Lambeth from which it is finally routed to London. All this happens at huge unplanned costs for the company. Added to this, it leads to delays in shipping the consignment. In a tough and competitive market, customer dissatisfaction is aggravated and the customer starts looking at other carriers. According to the company sources, erroneous routing has cost the company over five hundred thousand pounds in 2009 and lost atleast 2000 customers from transacting again. A few mistakes have also been committed downstream, by the regional collection centres. They have been dysfunctional in identifying the most cost effective and quick modes of disseminating the shipments. As an instance, a package arrived at Lambeth for final destination to London is grouped with packages to be delivered to Cranfield. By the time the Trucks have delivered all the packages in Cranfield, only to see a last package to be delivered to London, a transit has to be made all the way from Cranfield to London for a single consignment. With the rising fuel prices, this can be very costly for the company. Analysing the business operation, it can be seen that a lot of efforts are being wasted in areas that make no contributions to service delivery. In other words, there is a high propotion of Non Value Add (NVA) pieces in its model. As an instance, two separate hubs- one as a collection hub and the other as a delivery hub, can be avoided. Problem Resolving: In times as dynamic as the current and in a market with cut throat competition, the business has to look at a mix of innovative and tested business techniques to reduce overhead expenditure and to ensure higher levels of customer satisfaction. We suggest the management to adopt the tried and tested Six Sigma concepts in Operations. Though this will involve a complete revamp of the functioning and some major decisions in Operations Strategy, the positive outcomes of successful implementation will overshadow the costs by a fair margin. Six Sigma: Six Sigma is an Operational concept, originated by the Motorolla Corporation of Japan and widely used across the services industries. The Six Sigma culture aims to achieve operational excellence by consistently writing off the errors. It aims to minimize variability is Business production. It preaches the provision and management of appropriate tools and techniques which ensure that the error tolerance is no more than one defect per million operations (DPMO). The term Six Sigma has its roots built around the concepts of probability. In this case, its the probability of a defect. Majority of the things in the common world have a probability which form a normal distribution. The normal distribution can be explained on two parameters: mean- the average of the expected values of the parameter and Standard deviation- variability(fatness of the curve). This can be measured by the distance between the mean and the perpectual closing points on either one of the sides. This distance is also popularly termed as Sigma. The term Six sigma emphasizes that if an organization has sophisticated working conditions which ensure that the lower and upper service levels (or the range of tolerance) is within six standard deviations on either side of the mean, the chances of a manufacturing defect are only 3.4 per every million operations. Suggested tools for implementation: SWIFT can implement Six Sigma across the length and breadth of its operations using two basic tools: Business Process Mapping and Failure Mode and Effects Analysis (FMEA). The scale of its operations do not, yet, suggest the use of more complex and sophisticated techniques like Quality Function Deployment (QFD) and Process Capability Analysis for two reasons: High costs involved in the analysis. The medium scale operations of the firm will not provide the sufficient data for a more rigorous analysis. Business Process Mapping: Business Process Mapping refers to an activity involved in defining the exact functioning of a business. It aims is present, in clear and quantifiable terms, the objective of each business vertical, the steps to be followed in achieving the objective, the acceptable standards of the goods are services produced, the roles and the responsibilities of every person involved in the business functioning. It results in an illustration of the business functioning, usually through a flow chart. Services industries use two software packages for business stream mapping or business modeling as it is called in a few companies- Microsoft Visio and Casewise Business Modeller. We suggest the use of Visio because it is inexpensive. Casewise is amongst the most highly priced softwares and the scale of our operations do not justify its use. Failure Modes and Effects Analysis (FMEA): FMEA is a procedure used in Operations management. It explores the potential failure within a business function with an aim to rate the severity of the failure, the probability of the occurrence of the failure and its effects. Failure modes are anything which originate the dysfunctionality within the business. Effects Analysis studies the effects of these failures on the business. The three principal parameters of an FMEA are : Occurrence, Detection and Severity. In an FMEA, all the Implementation: Implementation of Six Sigma on the job floor is a very important function. The effectiveness of the whole project depends on careful planning and implementation in a phased manner. We suggest the following technique be used in the structured implementation and effective absorption of the Six Sigma culture. Initialization The initialization phase is strategic in nature. Responsibility lies with the Senior management to initialize the Six Sigma thinking. The CEO/ Chairman understands the concept of Six Sigma and how its implementation influences the business core competencies and effectiveness. Upon the managements decision to proceed, an enterprise level delivery leader, having a direct line of sight and reporting to the CEO should be identified. A set of formal guidelines, policies and implementation plan have to documented by the identified leader, in consultation with Operations, Human Resouces, Finance and other support functions. Execution With the framework set, it is now turn to put the plan into action. The company has now to select domain experts from different functions and assign them to work full time on the project. Training is now crucial. Having identified the people who would be the as the quality team, experienced consultants have to hired to train them on the Six Sigma and Lean concepts. Initial projects should then be identified. These could be any major problems that the business is facing. The projects must clearly identify one or more of the organizational goals thereby contributing to the enterprises core competencies. The goals must be clearly defined and be practically achieved within three to four months. There has to be a continuous review of these projects by the senior management. Assessment As projects are deemed to be completed and additional ones taken up, objective vs benefits assessment is to be done. The phase serves as a control mechanism. This is to ensure that: Key constituents of the Six Sigma Initialization plan are being achieved within the predefined time lines. Identify and manage any variability between set goals and actual accomplishments. Six Sigma is all about continuos improvement (Kaizen) and continuos learning. An assessment is necessary to ensure the knowledge is being shared across the business verticals. Promote discipline and accountability. The assessment could be a formal illustration or a word based. A sample suggestion is provided below: Project Selection and Execution: Having looked at the organizational wide implementation, the next focus should be on the individual projects. We propose the use of DMAIC thinking. Define: Identify a suitable defect. Measure: Measure the impact of the defects. Analyze: Analyze the defects and identify solutions. Improve: Implement Improvement opportunities. Control: Set up a control mechanism to monitor the project.

World War I Essay -- History, Cult of the Offensive

World War One took a toll on everyone between 1914 and 1918. What were some of the main causes and effects of World War One? There were many causes to World War One but one of them was the Cult of the Offensive. According to class notes on 4/4/11, countries should not wait to be attacked, they should attack first. The Cult of Offensive was â€Å"a military strategy of constantly attacking the enemy that was believed to be the key to winning World War One but that brought great loss of life while failing to bring decisive victory† (Hunt, 803). This strategy made the citizens ready and wanting to go to war. Also employs German propaganda and quick wars. Another key cause was Nationalism. Nationalism is â€Å"an ideology that arose in the nineteenth century and that holds that all peoples derive their identities from their nations, which are defined by common language, shared cultural traditions, and sometimes religion† (Hunt, G-4). Nationalism can also be described as the attitude that people of a nation have when they care about their national identity as well as the actions these people might take when seeking to achieve self determination. Everyone in the European countries had a lot of pride and joy for their country. This led to these countries trying to prove their dominance and power. Every country had to show that they were the best to all the other countries. Since this was happening, everyone wanted to show their best by helping an alliance in war. During 1870-1914 there was a substantial growth in standing armies (Class notes, 4/4/11). Many men were ready to go to war. Many countries including Germany and France doubled the size of their armies. The arms race then developed which was almost like a contest to see which co... ...security. â€Å"It was supposed to replace the divine secrecy of prewar power politics. As part of Wilson’s vision, the league would guide the world toward disarmament and arbitrate its members’ disputes† (Hunt, 818). The signing of the Treaty of Versailles did not completely end World War One. Many people’s lives were influenced by the political, economic and psychological effects. The war also changed people’s hopes and spirits because they developed a feeling of disillusionment. They believed their governments did not know in any way how to serve the best interests of the people. The psychological effect of the war on people was huge. The loss of their loved ones on the battlefield was very disturbing to them. There were millions of people who died during this war. These people just had to accept reality and release the dreams they had for their families.

The Ewell Residence in To Kill a Mockingbird :: Kill Mockingbird essays

The Ewell Residence in To Kill a Mockingbird In To Kill a Mockingbird, Harper Lee gives us a very detailed description of Robert Ewell, his family, and how he lives. A good example is the passage in which Robert Ewell testifies in the Tom Robinson Trial. This is a description of the Ewell's home as well as an insight into the Ewells themselves. We learn what kind of a father Robert is and the kind of life into which he has forced his eldest daughter, Mayella. We also see how the county of Maycomb cruelly discriminates against the black community even though they are more respectable than people like the Ewells. Lee uses such detail in the account of the Ewell cabin because the best way to understand the Ewells is to understand how they live. For example, she states, "The cabin's plank walls were supplemented with sheets of corrugated iron, its general shape suggested it's original design: square, with four tiny rooms opening onto a shotgun hall, the cabin rested uneasily upon four irregular lumps of limestone. Its windows were merely open spaces in the walls, which in the summer were covered with greasy strips of cheese cloth to keep out the varmints that feasted on Maycomb's refuse." This description paints a very vivid picture of the cabin and also tells a little bit about the Ewells themselves. From this we can infer that the Ewells took very little (if any at all) pride in their home and it's appearance. Later in the passage Lee adds, "What passed for a fence was bits of tree limbs, broomsticks and tool shafts, all tipped with rusty hammer heads, shovels, axes and grubbing hoes, held on with pieces of barbed wire." By now it is apparent that the only household repairs the Ewells make are with things they find at the dump. The image Lee is trying to form of these people is made very obvious by her use of details. The passage also gives quite a bit of insight into Mr.Ewell himself. For example, Lee states, "The varmints had a lean of it, for the Ewells gave the dump a thorough gleaning every day^Å" This statement informs us that the Ewells main source of revenue is form the town dump.

Mats Ek Essay

Introduction In this essay I will present one of the greatest choreographers of the 20th century, Mats Ek. I will describe his specific stylistic characteristics, themes and dance vocabulary bringing as examples some of his most important re-adapted works such as Giselle, Swan Lake and Sleeping Beauty. Life and career Mats Ek was born in Malmo, Sweden on the 18 of April 1945. He came from a very culturally active background: he was the son of a famous Swedish actor Anders Ek and the internationally recognized choreographer Birgit Cullberg, founder and director of the Cullberg Ballet, his sister Malin was an actress and his brother Niklas a dancer. Mats Ek started his dance studies (Martha Graham technique) with Doya Feur in 1962 alongside with drama studies. In 1965 he became a full time drama student at the Marie College but few years later he returned to dance training at the Stockholm Ballet Academy. His first theatrical working experience began as the producer and then director of the Puppet Theatre in Stockholm. During the season 1980-1981, he was associated with the Nederland Dans Theater as dancer as well as choreographer. Few years later he joined the Cullberg Ballet as a dancer and in 1985 he became the artistic director of it, he directed the company for eight years. He left it in 1993 b eing replaced from Lidstrom and Wennergren Juras. Re-making of the ballet classics â€Å"Over ten years ago I saw it(Giselle) for the first time- with Makarova. She was really gripped me. Already then, I thought the traditional story of Giselle contains many hidden possibilities which are not recognized. There are various trails leading inside, but they are not utilized. They lie fallow or else are powered over† (Ek, Mats interviewed by Tegeder, Ulrich. Create characters, special people. Ballet International,5,1983:19) Mats Ek is a very innovative choreographer of his time, the post modern era. Postmodernism is a movement that rebels against traditional ideas. Mats Ek is an active man of his time fully absorbed by the rebellion that was happening those years. This new ideas incite him to rebel against the traditional ballet classics radically modifying them and giving his own interpretation of them. All of his works are still narrative works but the  storyline of all the ballets is updated. â€Å"The investigation of narrative alleys,epic paths and metaphorical tunnels is what provides the primary stimulus for re-telling those stories by creating new dances† (Giannandrea Poesio, Dancing Times, October 2003 page 23) His alternative storylines are pure reality not fairytales, he is not interested in abstract concepts, he change the conventional viewpoint putting on stage actual themes. He gives the audience a taste of contemporary reality. â€Å"A fairytale is a sweet little cottage, but on the door you can read: Explosive!† Mats Ek The most famous ballets he reinterpreted are traditional ballets such as Giselle (1982), Swan Lake (1987) and Sleeping Beauty (1996). Giselle Mats Ek’s Giselle is something completely different from Perrot’s original version. The character of the young Giselle is completely flipped over; she is not the sixteen years old innocent girl but a passionate and sexual active woman. In Giselle in fact, Ek introduces and shows sexuality and love seen such a sexual one and not a romantic one anymore. (https://secure.staatsoper.de/) Swan Lake â€Å"A lonely, somewhat weaker than the-average-Prince-Siegfried, who questions his sexuality (think Oedipus complex) and his mother’s open issues in attempting to marry him to someone just like herself. The Prince encounters  androgynous creatures, swans that waddle through the ground rather than the graceful water creatures that we know from Petipa/Ivanov.† (http://www.theballetbag.com/2012/07/13/mats-ek-biography/) (http://www.criticaldance.com/reviews/2002/cullberg_swanlake-021023.html) Sleeping Beauty â€Å"The teenager Princess Aurora falls in love with â€Å"the wrong guy† and ends up in a drug-induced coma. Carabosse appears as a drug dealer and tempts Aurora into pricking her finger with the â€Å"needle†. At Aurora’s birth the fairies are maternity nurses and later they are pop culture characters out of a TV show, while the Prince is a spectator.† (http://www.theballetbag.com/2012/07/13/mats-ek-biography/) â€Å"Ek has made an astounding break from the Sleeping Beauty we know and love, leaving not a single stone of Petipa’s edifice standing, renouncing all the choreographic gems cut by the imperial jeweller of the Tsarist ballet† (Vollmer, Horst. Irreverently Classical: Mats Ek stages Sleeping Beautywith the Hamburg Ballet. Ballet International,7,1996:19) Tà ¶rnrosa – Gà ¶teborgsOperans Balett (http://www.danzaballet.com/?p=3497) There are also some works that seem not to follow a precise storyline like Smoke (1995) or Appartement (1999) but they can’t be described as abstract works because oh their strong content. Stylistic elements of his choreography Mats Ek choreography has two main characteristic elements: clarity and irony. All of his choreographies have a direct and immediate message, really easy to understand by the audience. With the new version of the traditional  ballets in fact Ek wants to go straight to the point in the shortest time possible opposing his works to the articulate and often ambiguous traditional ballets. â€Å"Clarity is the choreographer’s key word, as opposed to what he calls the ambiguity of the conventions and the clichà © of classical ballet, â€Å"clarity†, however, should not be mistaken of simplicity. In both Giselle and Swan Lake there lies beneath an accessible, straightforward dramatic construction an intricate amalgam os social, political, cultural and literary references† (Fifty Contemporary choreographers) Another important element of Ek’s choreography, as the quote above suggests, is the dramatic construction of his works. Ek does not just present dramatic situations to the audience but he creates all around an atmosphere of irony. â€Å"Irony is a characteristic element of Ek’s choreography, in which strong images and dramatic situations often contrast with brief, humorous episodes† (Fifty Contemporary choreographers second edition) â€Å"Even amidst the darkest and most poignant moments of a not-so-happy-ending situation, he manages to insert fire-cracking comic sections or references that enhance greatly the dramatic build up by creating a unique game of contrasts and choreographic chiaroscuro† (Giannandrea Poesio, Dancing Times, October 2003 page 25) Clear examples can be found in Giselle and Swan Lake: The two male peasants’ comic duet in front of Albrecht’ fiancà ©e just before the arrival of the aristocratic and the end of the act in Giselle. The three jesters’ dances just before the end of the lack scene in Swan Lake. These comic episodes are introduced with great ability every time a dramatic situation reaches its climax. Themes â€Å"Political, social, racial and sexual concerns informed Ek’s first three creations, Kalfaktorn (1976), St George and the Dragon (1976) and Soweto (1977); psychological themes and gender issues played a part in both House of Bernarda Alba (1978) and Antigone (1979) long before Giselle and Swan Lake† (Fifty Contemporary choreographers second edition) The main interest of the choreographer is to explore the human psychology  and the human relationships. â€Å"In reworking ballet classics, Ek’s creed is to render the characters alive, providing a clear description of their inner emotions and contrasts. The psychological characterization of the role is thus enlarged; the characters’ relationships and their emotional response to the development of the action are considered in greater depth † (Fifty Contemporary choreographers second edition) There are various examples of different human relationships in Ek’s works: Man/Woman in Smoke. â€Å"In â€Å"Smoke† Mats Ek shows the relationship between a man and a woman (Niklas Ek and Sylvie Guillem). Each of them has his/her own life as expressed in their respective solos. They meet and mingle tenderly and violently in two pas de deux. The smoke which comes from their clothes and mouths expresses their communication.† (http://nycdancestuff.wordpress.com/2012/04/09/smoke-by-mats-ek-imz-dance-screen-award-1996-with-niklas-sylvie-guillem/) Family relationships (parent/ child) in Swan Lake as Prince Siegfried are given an oedipal complex or in Sleeping Beauty when Aurora turns against her  parents. Close to this is the very theme of â€Å"motherhood† that is explored many times as well as the one about gender issues in his works. In Giselle, for example, the only activity conducted by the women is giving birth as the eggs brought on stage by the peasant woman seem to suggest. Gender issues are overall explored in The house of Bernarda Alba (1980) since the main character is performed by a man and in Carmen where the main character seems to be much more masculine than her man. Ek is, once again, fighting against traditions; he rebels against the traditional way of characterizing by stylized movements man and woman on stage. Ballet pieces tend to prefer some movements to be performed by female dancers and different ones by males. Ek instead tries â€Å"to cross the boundaries of given gender-specific movements, finding that really interesting† (Ek,Mats in Jensen,Gunilla, Intervista a Mats Ek, Reggio Emilia Danza: Edizioni del teatro municipale Valli,2002, p.38) â€Å"The movement language usefully opens up gender binaries leading to much more contemporary representations of man and woman. He exposes complexities of gender by inverting the far more conventional, steryotiped and idealised figures of traditional ballet† (Midgelow Vida, Reworking texts- inverting bodies, Mats Ek radically reconceived the classics, Ballet Theatre Journal) Rich and poor in Giselle. In this work Ek introduces the social theme of class differentiation. Giselle, completely in love with prince Albrecht who is clearly from a different social class, attempts to transgress the social rules. Finally she will be punished and rejected from her and Albrecht’s social class. White and black in Soweto (1977). The mechanical doll’s endless movements represent the white people’ prejudices against the blacks. They are repetitive movements and they symbolized the unchangeable ideas of the whites about the black people. Society and outsider in the second act of Giselle. Giselle is banished from  her social class and trapped into the mental hospital. This is a clear example of the society oppression. Giselle is banished because mentally disable and considered unable to find her place into the society again. (https://secure.staatsoper.de/922 -spielplan~ballett~veranstaltungen~vorstellung.html) Movement Vocabulary Mats Ek choreography is a totally new and innovative choreography. It is based on contemporary techniques. Ek gives much more importance to the body weight so his steps look more grounded and heavy. The dancers make a very good use of the floor. His movement language is really particular, there is a fluid use of the torso in contrast with the lower part of the body that is usually bend (bend knees). Very interesting is the constant research of opposition between inwards and outwards movements. The dancer seems first to perform a movement that reaches out from his body’s centre that ends being suddenly pulled back. Ek’s movement language reflect his themes and narrative intention, it goes against the original movements of the classical ballet. â€Å"Ek’s choreography inverts the traditional language of the ballet, he eschews ballet codes. He leaves behind the conventions of gendered vocabularies and the structured hierarchy of the pas de deux in favour of more diverse representations† (Midgelow Vida, Reworking texts- inverting bodies, Mats Ek radically reconceived the classics, Ballet Theatre Journal) A clear example is given by the swans in Swan Lake. In the traditional ballet in fact swans are seen as beautiful and ethereal animals perfectly synchronized with each other in every movement. Ek’s swans instead are â€Å"a set of independent earthly creatures that cross the stage with weighty gallops and stamping feet† (Midgelow, Vida). (http://www.cullbergbaletten.se/en/history) References Mats Ek’s experience in different art form really helped to develop his choreography. Mats Ek is not just a dancer but also an actor and puppeteer. In some of the choreographer’s works there are some clear references to literature. Ek seems to be strongly linked to the famous dramatis William Shakespeare. For example the relationship between Prince Siegfried and his mother can remind us the one between Hamlet and Gertrude. Influences and muses His mother, Birgit Cullberg, was the most important Ek’s influence. He dedicated a whole work to her: Old Children (1989). He learned a lot from her while he was sharing with her the artistic leadership of the Cullberg Ballet. There are lot of common themes between the two of them but different stylistic characteristics. Birgit’s style in fact was much more closer to balletic style. â€Å"The attention to psychological characterization, the sensitive portrayal of human feelings, the juxtaposition of strong images and humorous episodes can be seen as typical attributes of both Cullberg’s and Ek’s creations† (Poesio,Giannandrea. Fifty Contemporary Choreographers) (https://birgit+cullberg&oq=birgit+cullberg&gs) Ana Laguna, Ek’s wife, is the inspiring muse of the choreographer. She originated Giselle character, the Swan Queen in Swan Lake and the protagonist in Carmen. â€Å"The character of Giselle would have never been born without Ana Laguna† (Giannandrea Poesio) Ana Laguna, Mikhail Baryshnikov and Mats Ek (http://dansportalen.se/111/-fler-artiklar/nyhetsarkiv/1-23-2010-lena-andren-) Another great dancer who inspired him was Sylvie Guilleme. Ek created for her three works: Smoke, Wet Woman and Bye. Conclusion I enjoyed so much writing this essay. I think Mats Ek is an absolute genius, his choreographies are brilliant original and innovative. I love his reinterpretations of the three ballet classics, and his choreographic style. The movement vocabulary is unconventional and provocative. He is a choreographer simple and in its clarity and spontaneity we recognized his greatness. The messages arrive immediately to the audience, we do not need any explications or help to understand what the choreographer wants to say we just need to seat and enjoy the performance. Bibliography Book: Martha Bremser, Lorna Sanders. Fifty Contemporary Choreographers, Routledge Taylor. London and New York 2011. Accessed on 8th of April 2013 Articles: Pesio, Giannandrea. Mats Ek. The Dancing Times, October 2003. p 22. Accessed on the 12th of April 2013 Midgelow, Vida, Reworking texts-inverting bodies, Dancer Theatre Journal 15(2) 1999. p 4-7. Accessed on the 12th of April 2013 Jensen Gunilla, Mats Ek and the Cullberg Ballet, the Dancing Times. August 1997,p 993. Accessed on the 13th of April 2013

Trends in Indian Rainfall

National Climate Centre Research Report No: 2/2006 Trends in the rainfall pattern over India P. Guhathakurta and M. Rajeevan National Climate Centre India Meteorological Department PUNE. INDIA 411005 [email  protected] gov. in Abstract Monthly, seasonal and annual rainfall time series of 36 meteorological sub-divisions of India were constructed using a fixed but a large network of about 1476 rain-gauge stations. These rainfall series are thus temporally as well as spatially homogenous. Trend analysis was carried out to examine the long-term trends in rainfall over different sub divisions.Also monthly contributions of each of the monsoon months to annual rainfall in each year were computed and the trend analysis was performed. It has been found that the contribution of June, July and September rainfall to annual rainfall is decreasing for few sub-divisions while contribution of August rainfall is increasing in few other subdivisions. 1 1. Introduction In the context of climate chang e, it is pertinent to ascertain whether the characteristics of Indian summer monsoon also is changing.The Indian summer monsoon (June to September) rainfall is very crucial for the economic development, disaster management, hydrological planning for the country. Earlier, Mooley and Parthasarathy (1984), Parthasarathy et al. (1993), Parthasarathy et al. (1994), constructed all India rainfall series based on 306 uniformly distributed stations. They have also used area weighted method to calculate all India rainfall using rainfall data of the 306 districts outside the hilly regions like Jammu and Kashmir, Himachal Pradesh, Hills of west Uttar Pradesh, Sikkim and Arunachal Pradesh, Bay Islands and Arabian Sea Island.Presently this time series is updated by the Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology, Pune (www. tropmet. res. in) and this rainfall time series was extensively used by many researchers. At present there are more than 500 districts in the country. Using only 306 raingauge s tations, it may not be possible to represent all the districts and prepare district-wise rainfall climatology. All the districts are having geographical area more than 100 square km (except Andaman and Nicobar Islands). Only one station in the district may not produce reliable district rainfall climatology as rainfall is highly variable (WMO, 1983).Spatial homogeneity cannot be achieved with one or two stations in a district. Long term trends of Indian monsoon rainfall for the country as a whole as well as for smaller regions have been studied by several researchers. Most of the studies are based on the rainfall series constructed by Parthasarathy et al. (1994). They have found that the monsoon rainfall is without any trend and mainly random in nature over a long period of time, particularly on the all India time scale (Mooley and Parthasarathy, 1984). But on the spatial scale, existence of trends was noticed by Parthasarathy (1984) and Rupa Kumar et al. (1992).Parthasarathy (1984) found that the monsoon rainfall for the two subdivisions viz. sub-Himalayan West Bengal & Sikkim and the Bihar Plains are having decreasing trends while for the four sub- 2 divisions viz. Punjab, Konkan & Goa, West Madhya Pradesh and Telangana are having increasing trends. Using the network of 306 stations and for the period 18711984, Rupa Kumar et al. (1992) identified the areas having decreasing and increasing trends of monsoon rainfall. The past performances of the monsoon rainfall may give an indication of the future scenario. But in order to do so we should also understand the climatology in a better way.The construction of a homogeneous rainfall data series (spatially as well as temporally) was the first step in this study. India Meteorological Department (IMD) has a good network of rain gauge stations. From the vast data set archived at the National Data Centre, IMD, Pune, a network of 1476 rain-gauge stations was selected which have only 10% or less missing years of data. To construct a homogeneous data series for the complete data period of 1901-2003 missing period of the observatory data are replaced by the neighboring state rain-gauge data and vice versa. Fig. (a) shows the plot of the 1476 stations used for the study while Fig. 1 (b) show the plot of 306 stations used by the Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology for construction of homogeneous rainfall data (Parthasarathy 1984). Clearly, the network considered in this study is more uniformly spaced and temporally homogeneous, which can be used for analyzing the spatial and temporal variability in a better way. 2. Construction of homogeneous data series To prepare a homogenous rainfall time series, we have selected 1476 rain- gauge stations having maximum data availability during the period 1901-2003.Data for these stations are available for at least 90% of the years considered for this study (1901-2003). However, if some data was found missing for a particular station, the data gap was filled up by the rainfall data of a neighboring rain-gauge station. We have considered 458 districts for the present analysis. Each of these 458 districts of the country has two or more representing stations. First of all, the district rainfall is calculated as the arithmetic average of rainfall data of stations in the district. Thus, the rainfall data series was constructed as spatially and temporally homogeneous. Rainfall for the meteorological subdivisions (36) was calculated as the area weighted rainfall of the districts within the meteorological sub divisions. 3. Rainfall Over the country as a whole All India monthly, seasonal and annual rainfall series were constructed based on the area weighted rainfall of all the 36 meteorological subdivisions of the country. The results are given in Table 1. The mean, standard deviation and coefficient of variation are also given in the same Table. Mean (1901-2003) rainfall of July is 286. 5 mm, which is the highest and contributes 24. % of annual r ainfall (1182. 8 mm). The August rainfall is slightly lower and it contributes 21. 2% of annual rainfall. June and September rainfall are almost similar and they contributes 13. 8 % and 14. 2 % of annual rainfall respectively. The mean south-west monsoon rainfall (877. 2 mm) contributes 74. 2 % of annual rainfall (1182. 8 mm). Contribution of pre-monsoon rainfall and post-monsoon rainfall in annual rainfall is mostly the same (11%). Coefficient of variation is higher during the months of November, December, January and February. Fig. shows the comparison of the IITM southwest monsoon season (June-September) rainfall series with the rainfall series constructed in this study. The correlation coefficient between these two series is found to be very large, 0. 97. The mean seasonal rainfall of IITM series is 844. 5 mm whereas the men value of this time series is 877. 2 mm. The high mean value of the present series is because of the consideration all the 36 meteorological subdivisions, in cluding hilly regions. The standard deviation and coefficient of variability for the IITM series are 81. mm and 9. 6% and the same for the present time series are 71. 0 mm, 8. 1% respectively. Coefficient of variation of the present time series is smaller compared to IITM time series. 4. Epochal patterns of Indian summer monsoon rainfall It is well known that Indian summer monsoon rainfall displays multi-decadal variations in which there is a clustering of wet or dry anomalies (Pant and Kumar, 1997). To examine the epochs of above and below normal rainfall, 31-year running means of Indian summer monsoon rainfall (ISMR) was calculated to isolate low 4 requency behavior. These epochs of above and below normal rainfall are shown in Figure 4. Rainfall was above normal for nearly forty years from 1930s to 1960s. To understand the epochal behavior of rainfall series for different monsoon months, we have also calculated 31-year running means of each of the monsoon months (Figure 5). It is seen that epochal behavior of July and September rainfall is almost similar to that of monsoon seasonal rainfall. In August, the above normal or positive phases started from the middle of 1950s and continued till to the end.Both June and August rainfall are in positive phase in the recent decades while July and September rainfall are in the negative phase. Fig. 6 shows the decadal means of all India summer monsoon rainfall anomalies. The alternating sequence of multi-decadal periods having frequent droughts and flood years are clearly noticed in Fig. 6. We can delineate (i) 1901-1930 dry period (ii) 1931-60 wet period (iii) 1961-90 Dry period (iv) 1991-2020 (possibly) Wet period. Earlier studies by Pant and Kumar(1997) using the data series of Parthasarathy et al. 1994) also found the similar results of 30 years of alternating sequences of dry and wet period. The Table 2 shows the decadal mean, frequencies of drought and flood years. The deficient or excess monsoon years are defined for those years where monsoon rainfall percentage departures from the mean rainfall are less or more than the standard deviation (8. 1% of mean). In the decade 1911-20, there were four deficient and three excess years. During the dry period of 1901-30, we had eight deficient years and three excess years. During the next three decades of wet period, we had three deficient years and five excess years.In the dry period of 1961-90, there were seven deficient years and four excess years. Also during the period of 1901-2003, number of deficient years (19) is more than the number of excess years (13). Fig. 7 shows a similar picture for each of the four monsoon months. Except for the decade 1921-30, behavior of July rainfall was almost similar to that of monsoon seasonal rainfall. During the decade 1921-30, in spite of high contribution from July, seasonal rainfall became negative because of high negative contribution of June and August rainfall. Decadal variability is more in June where a lternating equence of wet and dry periods are seen on almost every decade. Coefficient of variability of July (12. 3%) and August (12. 0%) rainfall are also less compared to June (18. 1%) and September (19. 1%) rainfall. 5 5. Trends in All India monsoon rainfall Fig. 8 shows the All India monsoon seasonal rainfall series as percentage departure from long period average. The series was subjected to a ‘low- pass filter’ in order to suppress the high frequency oscillations. The weights used were nine point Gaussian probability curve (0. 01, 0. 05, 0. 12, 0. 20, 0. 24, 0. 20, 0. 12, 0. 5, 0. 01). It is clearly seen that no linear trend exists in this series. We have also used linear regression technique and the ‘Students t’ test for testing if there is any significance in the trend. All India summer monsoon rainfall as well the rainfall during the four monsoon months do not show any significant trend. 6. Trends in Sub-divisional rainfall It is interesting to se e that for the country as a whole, the all India monsoon rainfall and monthly rainfall for the monsoon months do not show any significant trend. But there can be large variations in the regional scale.In order to study the secular variations of regional rainfall we have then carried out the trend analysis for the monthly rainfall series of June, July, August, and September and also for the season as a whole for all the 36 subdivisions. The results are shown in Fig 9, which shows significant and remarkable variations on the regional scale. We have analyzed July and August rainfall, which contributes major portion of monsoon seasonal rainfall. We find in July, six subdivisions have shown decreasing trends and eight subdivisions have increasing trends. In August, four (ten) subdivisions have decreasing (increasing) trends for August rainfall.We have considered all the cases of 99%, 95% and 90% levels of statistical significance. June rainfall has shown increasing trend for the western and southwestern parts of the country whereas decreasing trends are observed for the central and eastern parts of the country. But July rainfall has decreased for most parts of the central and peninsular India but increased significantly in the northeastern parts of the country. August rainfall has increased significantly (at 95% significance level) for the subdivisions Konkan & Goa, Marathwada, Madhya Maharashtra, Vidarbha, West M.P. , Telangana and west U. P. September rainfall is increasing significantly (at 95% level of significance) in Gangetic West Bengal and decreasing significantly (at 90% level of significance) for 6 the sub-divisions Marathwada, Vidarbha and Telangana. Fig. 10 shows the trends in southwest monsoon rainfall (in mm in 100 year) for each of the 36 subdivisions. Different levels of significance are shaded with colours. During the season, three subdivisions viz. Jharkhand (95%), Chattisgarh (99%), Kerala (90%) show significant decreasing trends and eight subdiv isions viz.Gangetic WB (90%), West UP (90%), Jammu & Kashmir (90%), Konkan & Goa (95%), Madhya Maharashtra (90%), Rayalseema (90%), Coastal A P (90%) and North Interior Karnataka (95%) show significant increasing trends. In order to examine further, whether the contribution of each month’s rainfall in the annual rainfall shows any significant trend, we have prepared a time series of contribution of rainfall for each month towards the annual total rainfall for each year in percentages. Trend analyses are carried out for each month and for all the 36 subdivisions.Results suggest that contribution of June and August rainfall exhibited significant increasing trends, while contribution of July rainfall exhibited decreasing trends. Fig. 11 shows some very interesting results. June rainfall is getting importance as its contribution to annual rainfall is increasing in almost 19 subdivisions while decreasing in the remaining 17 subdivisions. Contribution of July rainfall is decreasing in central and west peninsular India (significantly in South interior Karnataka (95%), East M. P. (90%) Vidarbha (90%), Madhya Maharashtra (90%), Marathwada (90%), Konkan & Goa (90%), and North interior Karnataka (90%)).Interestingly, contribution of August rainfall is increasing in all these subdivisions. Therefore, we see a major shift in rainfall pattern spatially and temperally during the recent years. 7. Trends in sub-divisional rainfall during other seasons Though south-west monsoon is the major rain producing season over the country, other seasons have also significant contribution in some specific areas. The rainfall during the winter and pre-monsoon seasons are mostly predominant by western disturbances and convective activities whereas during northeast monsoon is predominant over southern states during the October-December period.Therefore, trends analysis was also carried out on sub-divisional rainfall series for the winter 7 season (January – February), pre-monso on season (March-May), post-monsoon season (October-December) and also for the annual rainfall. Fig. 12 shows the increase/decrease in mm in 100 year in each of 36 subdivisions for the winter, premonsoon, post-monsoon seasons and annual. Different levels of significance are shaded with different colours. Rainfall is decreasing in almost all the sub-divisions except for the sub-divisions Himachal Pradesh, Jharkhand and Nagaland, Manipur, Mizoram & Tripura during the winter season.The rainfall for the subdivisions viz. east Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, east Madhya Pradesh where winter rainfall is mostly due to western disturbances is also decreasing significantly. Rainfall is decreasing significantly for the eighteen sub-divisions of the country during the winter season. During the pre-monsoon season, rainfall is decreasing over most parts of the central India. This may indirectly suggests that the convective activity which is the main cause for the rainfall activities during the pre-monsoon season is decreasing over the central parts of the country.Rainfall is decreasing significantly for the six subdivisions viz. Gujarat Region, west M. P. , east M. P. , Vidarbha, Chattisgarh and Jharkhand. However during the post-monsoon season, rainfall is increasing for almost all the sub-divisions except for the nine sub-divisions. It is increasing significantly for the sub-divisions viz. Saurashtra & Kutch, Marathwada and Rayalseema. For the sub-divisions Chattisgarh, Jharkhand and Kerala significant decrease in rainfall is even observed in annual scale.Significant increasing trend is observed in the annual scale for the sub-divisions Konkan & Goa, Madhya Maharashtra, North Interior Karnataka, Rayalseema, coastal Andhra Pradesh, Gangetic West Bengal, Assam & Meghalaya and Jammu & Kashmir. 8. Conclusions There was a need for development of a homogeneous (spatially and temporally) rainfall series for all the 36 meteorological subdivisions as well as for the country as a whole. The newly constructed rainfall series is uniformly distributed through out the country and it represents all the existing districts.Though Indian monsoon rainfall as a whole does not show any significant trend, significant rainfall trends are observed over some specific areas. Present study brings out some of the interesting and also significant changes in the rainfall pattern of the country. The 8 alternating sequence of multi-decadal periods of thirty years having frequent droughts and flood years are observed in the all India monsoon rainfall data. The decades 1961-70, 1971-80 and 1981-90 were dry periods. The first decade (19912000) in the next 30 years period already experienced wet period (Fig. 6).Therefore, there is a chance of wet period for the subsequent two decades viz. 2001-2010 and 2011-2020. Decadal variability is more for the June and September months while decadal variability of July rainfall is almost similar to that of monsoon rainfall. July rainfall is decreasing for most parts of central India while it is decreasing for the north eastern parts of the country. However June and August rainfall is increasing for the central and south western parts of the country. During the southwest monsoon season, three subdivisions viz. Jharkhand, Chattisgarh, Kerala show significant decreasing trend and eight subdivisions viz.Gangetic WB, West UP, Jammu & Kashmir , Konkan & Goa , Madhya Maharashtra, Rayalseema , Coastal A P and North Interior Karnataka show significant increasing trends. For the first time, we have also studied contribution of each of major rain producing month’s (i. e. June, July, August and September) in annual rainfall and examine whether there is any significant change in their contribution. June rainfall is getting importance as its contribution to annual rainfall is increasing in almost 19 sub-divisions while decreasing in the remaining 17 subdivisions. Contribution of July rainfall is decreasing in central and west peninsular In dia.But contribution of August rainfall is increasing in all these areas. Significant increasing trend is also observed in the annual rainfall for the sub-divisions Konkan & Goa, Madhya Maharashtra, North Interior Karnataka, Rayalseema, coastal Andhra Pradesh, Gangetic West Bengal, Assam & Meghalaya and Jammu & Kashmir. Acknowledgements: The authors are thankful to Dr (Mrs) N. Jayanthi, LACD ADGM(R) and Shri Thakur Prasad, DDGM (C) for providing kind support and encouragements for this research work. We also acknowledge the help provided by the staff of the Hydrology section.Note : Electronic version of the all India monthly rainfall shown in Table – 1 can be obtained from National Climate Centre ([email  protected] pune. gov. in) 9 References Pant, G. B. & Rupa Kumar, K. , 1997, Climates of South Asia. John Wiley & Sons, Chichester, 320 pp. Parthasarathy B, 1984, Inter-annual and long term variability of Indian summer monsoon rainfall’, Proc. Indian Acad. Sci. (Eart h Planet. Sci. ), 93, 371-385. Parthasarathy B, Rupa Kumar K and Munot A 1993 Homogeneous Indian monsoon rainfall: variability and prediction; Proc. Indian Acad. Sci. (Earth Planet Science) 102 121-155.Parthasarathy, B. , Munot A and Kothawale D R 1994: All-India monthly and seasonal rainfall series 1887-1993; Theoretical and Applied Climatology 49 217-224. Rupa Kumar, K. , Pant G. B. , Parthasarathy, B. and Sontakke, N. A. 1992, Spatial and sub-seasonal patterns of the long-term trends of Indian summer monsoon rainfall, Int. J. of Climatol. , 12, 257-268. Mooley, D. A. & Parthasarathy, B. , 1984: Fluctuations in All-India summer monsoon rainfall during 1871-1978. Climatic Change, 6, 287-301. World Meteorological Organization, 1983, Guide to Climatological Practices, WMO No 100. 10Table-1 All India monthly, seasonal and annual rainfall Rainfall in mm YEAR 1901 1902 1903 1904 1905 1906 1907 1908 1909 1910 1911 1912 1913 1914 1915 1916 1917 1918 1919 1920 1921 1922 1923 1924 1925 1926 1927 1928 1929 1930 1931 1932 1933 1934 1935 1936 1937 1938 1939 1940 1941 1942 1943 1944 1945 1946 1947 1948 1949 1950 1951 JAN 34. 1 11. 4 18. 7 17. 5 24. 9 23. 0 15. 8 22. 2 25. 7 16. 2 41. 1 23. 4 8. 9 6. 4 22. 1 5. 8 9. 6 14. 1 50. 6 24. 9 39. 9 29. 4 26. 0 21. 3 14. 6 29. 4 14. 3 23. 2 28. 0 23. 6 13. 8 10. 0 17. 8 24. 8 30. 0 11. 8 7. 8 30. 8 14. 1 16. 0 25. 7 25. 0 54. 9 28. 5 34. 8 6. 9 23. 2 25. 6 13. 2 30. 2 15. FEB 40. 2 12. 4 14. 0 15. 6 26. 3 49. 2 48. 6 23. 0 21. 4 15. 2 11. 1 23. 7 41. 7 32. 8 42. 1 22. 3 35. 7 7. 1 24. 4 23. 6 10. 8 12. 5 42. 2 25. 7 13. 4 13. 2 34. 2 42. 5 22. 4 22. 2 33. 2 25. 1 32. 9 11. 4 21. 3 41. 5 53. 6 32. 6 33. 4 27. 9 17. 4 45. 1 12. 2 43. 0 10. 8 21. 5 21. 0 29. 0 29. 7 25. 0 15. 3 MAR 29. 6 28. 6 35. 8 38. 5 45. 1 39. 1 46. 7 21. 5 19. 3 22. 5 52. 9 27. 5 31. 0 33. 2 51. 8 17. 8 29. 7 39. 6 27. 6 49. 4 20. 0 18. 4 29. 0 20. 7 20. 9 59. 0 27. 6 25. 6 18. 4 27. 1 22. 2 26. 7 31. 0 22. 2 22. 7 41. 1 24. 6 28. 2 36. 5 45. 1 21. 2 19. 3 26. 7 59. 7 23. 2 26. 0 29. 1 42. 4 24. 4 37. 4 43. 1 APR 41. 9 48. 28. 8 38. 5 39. 5 25. 5 66. 8 38. 2 69. 4 35. 8 32. 4 43. 9 33. 4 50. 6 42. 8 36. 0 43. 2 41. 1 34. 9 36. 8 41. 1 32. 7 32. 4 35. 1 42. 3 42. 9 33. 5 39. 8 50. 4 47. 2 33. 6 32. 6 48. 7 36. 5 46. 9 32. 1 57. 9 31. 1 38. 3 32. 9 30. 7 45. 5 48. 6 37. 6 48. 0 48. 5 35. 4 40. 2 48. 0 26. 9 46. 2 MAY 59. 1 57. 3 66. 3 77. 2 62. 3 45. 6 41. 8 52. 5 59. 9 50. 6 52. 5 49. 7 77. 1 72. 5 62. 0 57. 6 80. 0 89. 4 60. 0 57. 5 40. 1 47. 4 55. 3 59. 7 86. 2 59. 6 54. 5 48. 6 55. 0 59. 8 56. 4 72. 1 98. 8 41. 5 36. 2 79. 4 53. 8 69. 4 39. 4 76. 0 69. 4 56. 1 86. 0 47. 6 50. 4 63. 5 47. 2 75. 2 78. 1 50. 2 58. 4 JUN 129. 4 123. 8 131. 169. 2 112. 1 185. 3 160. 9 135. 7 208. 1 213. 2 196. 8 115. 3 218. 8 166. 9 161. 8 215. 0 221. 3 181. 2 185. 7 151. 4 172. 5 184. 4 98. 6 121. 3 199. 2 95. 1 164. 5 158. 8 179. 0 172. 2 114. 5 125. 0 206. 9 197. 5 141. 9 241. 9 160. 2 245. 5 153. 7 170. 4 162. 2 172. 3 154. 6 138. 1 155. 7 201. 1 124. 0 153. 9 146. 7 142. 7 150. 3 JUL 252. 7 285. 6 298. 9 271. 9 263. 5 290. 7 236. 3 327. 0 314. 9 251. 3 174. 0 329. 3 278. 5 348. 6 232. 9 269. 8 267. 4 160. 9 294. 3 294. 2 274. 6 304. 1 321. 1 315. 0 297. 7 301. 8 333. 6 291. 3 292. 6 289. 1 294. 7 326. 7 275. 7 273. 5 312. 3 276. 2 329. 3 283. 5 262. 5 296. 0 234. 0 339. 305. 5 343. 4 315. 2 297. 4 294. 7 308. 3 298. 9 335. 5 251. 6 AUG 268. 6 209. 8 269. 3 216. 4 211. 3 252. 2 310. 9 308. 5 229. 0 285. 5 214. 6 262. 2 198. 3 239. 8 225. 8 302. 6 287. 3 231. 0 288. 6 177. 9 259. 9 214. 4 272. 2 249. 4 232. 2 326. 6 251. 9 216. 4 240. 9 196. 7 305. 5 227. 8 301. 9 290. 6 228. 1 228. 4 194. 9 239. 6 235. 6 282. 9 223. 4 286. 0 228. 3 288. 4 232. 9 286. 5 287. 4 275. 2 236. 8 235. 6 223. 9 SEP 137. 3 201. 1 195. 3 141. 6 175. 6 182. 5 104. 0 158. 8 165. 9 191. 6 181. 3 128. 8 117. 9 198. 2 175. 8 197. 4 277. 6 105. 2 152. 6 122. 3 193. 5 200. 6 167. 9 232. 9 123. 4 205. 5 152. 6 139. 1 122. 173. 5 186. 3 173. 8 211. 1 164. 4 178. 1 18 5. 4 174. 0 156. 2 150. 3 115. 1 148. 0 180. 4 203. 0 148. 1 210. 6 141. 6 234. 3 176. 5 217. 2 196. 7 130. 5 OCT 59. 5 69. 9 116. 1 73. 7 60. 2 55. 7 31. 8 46. 8 45. 2 111. 8 71. 0 61. 3 69. 6 52. 6 93. 8 140. 4 157. 1 23. 5 77. 1 47. 0 69. 3 56. 5 63. 0 63. 3 72. 2 54. 9 62. 8 115. 3 95. 8 93. 1 121. 7 68. 9 95. 9 62. 2 57. 1 64. 3 94. 5 75. 0 88. 9 62. 4 62. 9 44. 0 90. 5 90. 4 82. 4 79. 6 66. 9 63. 4 93. 2 56. 6 75. 4 NOV 37. 1 29. 3 39. 3 13. 4 12. 9 19. 2 24. 5 8. 9 12. 6 36. 1 43. 8 50. 3 18. 7 22. 3 47. 6 45. 5 27. 4 44. 7 50. 4 26. 5 16. 8 55. 2 17. 7 54. 6 42. 4 11. 8 56. 23. 4 19. 6 47. 7 41. 2 55. 7 21. 3 29. 5 17. 3 56. 2 21. 9 16. 1 29. 7 41. 4 27. 6 18. 2 18. 1 30. 3 21. 2 76. 9 9. 8 70. 0 12. 6 25. 4 31. 7 DEC 14. 0 27. 3 22. 6 19. 7 14. 2 29. 8 16. 6 12. 6 31. 4 9. 5 14. 8 8. 5 25. 1 23. 2 11. 2 5. 8 13. 4 18. 7 22. 5 6. 2 19. 3 16. 5 18. 3 18. 7 18. 4 11. 7 13. 7 29. 1 39. 7 12. 6 23. 8 17. 2 19. 1 14. 7 12. 9 22. 6 21. 0 7. 9 4. 5 18. 0 21. 5 29. 2 8. 5 17. 9 7. 8 39. 4 26. 4 12. 6 5. 7 10. 6 8. 7 J-F 74. 3 23. 8 32. 7 33. 1 51. 2 72. 2 64. 4 45. 2 47. 1 31. 4 52. 2 47. 1 50. 6 39. 2 64. 2 28. 1 45. 3 21. 2 75. 0 48. 5 50. 7 41. 9 68. 2 47. 0 28. 0 42. 6 48. 5 65. 7 50. 4 45. 8 47. 35. 1 50. 7 36. 2 51. 3 53. 3 61. 4 63. 4 47. 5 43. 9 43. 1 70. 1 67. 1 71. 5 45. 6 28. 4 44. 2 54. 6 42. 9 55. 2 31. 2 MAM 130. 6 134. 0 130. 9 154. 2 146. 9 110. 2 155. 3 112. 2 148. 6 108. 9 137. 8 121. 1 141. 5 156. 3 156. 6 111. 4 152. 9 170. 1 122. 5 143. 7 101. 2 98. 5 116. 7 115. 5 149. 4 161. 5 115. 6 114. 0 123. 8 134. 1 112. 2 131. 4 178. 5 100. 2 105. 8 152. 6 136. 3 128. 7 114. 2 154. 0 121. 3 120. 9 161. 3 144. 9 121. 6 138. 0 111. 7 157. 8 150. 5 114. 5 147. 7 J-S 788. 0 820. 3 894. 9 799. 1 762. 5 910. 7 812. 1 930. 0 917. 9 941. 6 766. 7 835. 6 813. 5 953. 5 796. 3 984. 8 1053. 6 678. 3 921. 2 745. 8 900. 903. 5 859. 8 918. 6 852. 5 929. 0 902. 6 805. 6 835. 4 831. 5 901. 0 853. 3 995. 6 926. 0 860. 4 931. 9 858. 4 924. 8 802. 1 864. 4 767. 6 978. 2 891. 4 918. 0 914. 4 926. 6 940. 4 913. 9 899. 6 910. 5 756. 3 O-D 110. 6 126. 5 178. 0 106. 8 87. 3 104. 7 72. 9 68. 3 89. 2 157. 4 129. 6 120. 1 113. 4 98. 1 152. 6 191. 7 197. 9 86. 9 150. 0 79. 7 105. 4 128. 2 99. 0 136. 6 133. 0 78. 4 133. 4 167. 8 155. 1 153. 4 186. 7 141. 8 136. 3 106. 4 87. 3 143. 1 137. 4 99. 0 123. 1 121. 8 112. 0 91. 4 117. 1 138. 6 111. 4 195. 9 103. 1 146. 0 111. 5 92. 6 115. 8 ANNUAL 1103. 5 1104. 6 1236. 5 1093. 2 1047. 9 1197. 8 1104. 7 1155. 1202. 8 1239. 3 1086. 3 1123. 9 1119. 0 1247. 1 1169. 7 1316. 0 1449. 7 956. 5 1268. 7 1017. 7 1157. 8 1172. 1 1143. 7 1217. 7 1162. 9 1211. 5 1200. 1 1153. 1 1164. 7 1164. 8 1246. 9 1161. 6 1361. 1 1168. 8 1104. 8 1280. 9 1193. 5 1215. 9 1086. 9 1184. 1 1044. 0 1260. 6 1236. 9 1273. 0 1193. 0 1288. 9 1199. 4 1272. 3 1204. 5 1172. 8 1051. 0 11 1952 1953 1954 1955 1956 1957 1958 1959 1960 1961 1962 1963 1964 1965 1966 1967 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 198 5 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 Mean (1901-2003) S. D.C. V. 11. 0 26. 2 30. 4 23. 5 17. 5 32. 2 15. 1 28. 7 16. 3 24. 9 14. 9 13. 5 13. 2 13. 3 15. 7 12. 9 24. 3 12. 7 23. 2 17. 4 12. 4 15. 0 11. 7 17. 3 12. 7 17. 9 14. 8 20. 0 15. 0 26. 9 25. 9 18. 2 20. 4 23. 0 17. 8 17. 7 11. 0 15. 8 16. 8 14. 6 19. 2 18. 6 23. 9 27. 5 22. 3 16. 2 16. 9 20. 3 22. 0 11. 3 20. 4 15. 5 20. 3 8. 5 41. 8 22. 6 13. 9 36. 6 11. 1 16. 6 18. 8 20. 5 25. 1 9. 2 33. 9 24. 1 16. 2 19. 0 22. 9 23. 8 14. 1 21. 4 16. 4 27. 4 23. 1 25. 3 19. 4 14. 4 21. 3 22. 2 18. 4 28. 6 34. 7 21. 5 20. 3 25. 1 23. 5 31. 8 14. 4 34. 5 20. 4 24. 9 17. 8 42. 5 25. 7 23. 5 26. 9 25. 9 29. 0 22. 8 13. 0 33. 7 13. 6 26. 8 14. 20. 1 30. 9 24. 6 10. 0 40. 4 35. 1 24. 8 27. 9 29. 9 36. 7 41. 3 29. 8 30. 0 39. 7 27. 8 26. 3 38. 7 27. 9 34. 2 24. 8 55. 0 30. 5 26. 9 33. 3 26. 3 24. 8 27. 5 25. 0 32. 5 32. 3 27. 9 40. 7 34. 1 31. 7 45. 3 41. 1 38. 4 31. 0 30. 8 28. 5 29. 0 43. 8 32. 2 49. 5 29. 8 33. 9 40. 0 27. 3 28. 7 36. 5 33. 8 41. 9 18. 2 22. 9 23. 2 28. 5 32. 8 32. 0 9. 2 28. 8 37. 8 42. 4 30. 2 39. 5 37. 4 35. 3 39. 8 34. 1 28. 1 33. 5 47. 3 45. 6 38. 0 41. 6 34. 9 33. 1 37. 0 42. 5 37. 4 49. 0 37. 4 31. 9 35. 8 31. 5 39. 6 58. 3 32. 9 26. 9 38. 8 36. 1 50. 0 49. 7 42. 6 36. 6 48. 5 39. 4 45. 6 34. 4 43. 4 50. 9 32. 5 30. 7 47. 2 34. 5 35. 5 2. 9 41. 7 24. 2 43. 7 44. 2 42. 3 39. 0 39. 8 7. 9 19. 9 69. 9 48. 7 56. 3 77. 4 85. 8 62. 4 66. 9 68. 5 64. 3 73. 2 63. 6 58. 7 53. 6 50. 9 59. 8 48. 5 45. 6 66. 0 66. 1 73. 7 60. 4 61. 3 66. 2 54. 5 50. 4 81. 3 64. 1 56. 9 50. 6 60. 9 63. 3 63. 8 56. 3 54. 2 53. 9 64. 0 68. 3 56. 1 101. 7 73. 5 53. 9 67. 6 50. 9 77. 7 60. 9 51. 0 58. 9 81. 9 69. 9 61. 4 59. 7 55. 7 61. 9 12. 5 20. 2 168. 4 163. 3 148. 6 180. 3 208. 4 152. 3 123. 9 162. 6 152. 0 185. 8 123. 5 148. 8 152. 3 121. 0 169. 1 146. 3 146. 5 131. 8 195. 5 203. 3 137. 1 148. 5 126. 0 176. 1 157. 7 184. 3 187. 2 151. 1 212. 2 158. 9 139. 9 150. 3 164. 3 153. 0 174. 130. 1 159. 9 183. 3 180. 8 181. 8 141. 9 165. 7 199. 8 137. 4 170. 7 166. 7 162. 4 167. 3 178. 1 185. 6 161. 2 167. 8 163. 4 29. 5 18. 1 281. 8 312. 9 297. 7 241. 2 351. 3 288. 9 314. 5 345. 5 290. 6 329. 0 272. 9 254. 4 320. 6 279. 4 253. 1 296. 4 302. 4 305. 2 248. 8 260. 3 226. 3 284. 5 271. 6 295. 3 294. 1 305. 7 291. 4 244. 4 290. 4 303. 6 242. 7 279. 8 282. 1 270. 9 265. 7 237. 6 353. 4 308. 2 279. 0 281. 4 257. 9 314. 1 336. 3 301. 3 277. 0 284. 8 293. 1 274. 8 274. 5 275. 4 163. 9 305. 9 286. 7 35. 3 12. 3 249. 0 286. 0 237. 5 313. 9 259. 6 264. 9 285. 4 255. 5 244. 6 277. 3 257. 6 294. 9 273. 2 210. 1 229. 5 266. 214. 8 260. 6 300. 8 260. 3 234. 1 293. 4 240. 0 284. 8 292. 1 254. 9 277. 9 235. 1 263. 3 239. 3 274. 5 294. 4 260. 7 238. 7 235. 2 237. 1 285. 2 238. 1 292. 7 256. 0 269. 0 209. 8 278. 9 256. 1 283. 4 270. 5 253. 3 251. 0 240. 2 229. 8 244. 0 250. 1 255. 3 30. 6 12. 0 121. 9 169. 8 244. 5 217. 7 169. 0 130. 3 215. 0 219. 1 168. 6 228. 0 207. 0 163. 2 198. 4 145. 5 151. 7 176. 8 144. 3 179. 6 203. 3 159. 2 138. 9 182. 7 155. 8 224. 1 150. 2 152. 2 160. 4 146. 4 144. 8 193. 5 135. 5 224. 4 149. 7 157. 6 142. 0 152. 0 214. 0 170. 2 195. 2 135. 6 169. 2 200. 6 153. 3 183. 8 147. 0 163. 0 195. 5 191. 5 154. 3 138. 3 173. 0 181. 171. 8 32. 8 19. 1 76. 7 88. 5 81. 6 145. 9 149. 7 66. 4 103. 9 118. 6 75. 3 116. 7 80. 8 93. 0 68. 5 45. 3 62. 1 52. 0 73. 2 63. 5 75. 2 95. 5 70. 8 106. 2 101. 1 109. 8 39. 0 88. 7 62. 7 63. 5 56. 3 53. 8 60. 3 85. 1 69. 1 115. 0 72. 0 88. 4 57. 1 54. 2 99. 9 63. 9 69. 0 87. 8 87. 6 76. 3 98. 8 68. 1 102. 1 106. 5 60. 7 95. 0 69. 8 93. 8 78. 4 24. 8 31. 6 9. 4 14. 1 5. 6 28. 4 42. 8 27. 2 35. 4 25. 4 34. 8 22. 9 19. 9 25. 9 26. 4 18. 7 49. 4 14. 8 23. 4 35. 5 20. 0 16. 1 31. 3 17. 8 14. 4 23. 8 53. 5 61. 8 44. 5 71. 8 26. 0 29. 1 43. 9 14. 0 18. 2 20. 9 43. 9 45. 2 17. 9 20. 6 32. 2 33. 7 42. 3 29. 0 26. 8 35. 7 16. 5 56. 38. 9 23. 2 20. 6 26. 7 27. 0 26. 0 30. 7 15. 1 49. 3 24. 5 9. 8 16. 9 12. 9 15. 8 16 . 3 18. 7 11. 6 12. 6 13. 6 31. 5 19. 1 14. 8 25. 4 18. 4 46. 1 14. 6 17. 5 10. 0 18. 1 23. 8 19. 3 11. 9 9. 8 13. 0 15. 1 24. 6 16. 4 23. 4 16. 8 15. 0 24. 1 16. 9 22. 5 25. 9 21. 3 17. 0 18. 1 25. 2 22. 0 7. 6 18. 6 19. 1 10. 6 18. 6 45. 1 12. 5 8. 5 11. 5 11. 8 12. 0 20. 7 17. 9 7. 9 44. 0 33. 6 40. 1 67. 0 34. 6 34. 1 51. 0 35. 6 53. 8 25. 5 58. 8 39. 0 29. 7 32. 2 36. 2 39. 5 27. 0 45. 7 29. 1 50. 6 40. 5 37. 7 34. 4 26. 1 38. 6 34. 9 36. 3 43. 4 54. 7 36. 5 47. 2 51. 0 41. 7 52. 2 37. 4 52. 3 38. 1 35. 9 33. 6 59. 3 40. 3 42. 7 45. 49. 8 56. 5 45. 1 29. 2 50. 6 33. 9 48. 8 25. 4 40. 5 46. 4 44. 9 12. 3 27. 3 142. 8 115. 9 114. 4 146. 8 159. 9 139. 0 136. 5 132. 6 132. 1 134. 5 137. 2 143. 0 119. 5 126. 7 119. 5 136. 6 113. 1 135. 4 136. 8 149. 0 122. 6 120. 7 127. 0 118. 5 122. 3 167. 5 137. 7 117. 9 121. 1 142. 3 154. 4 151. 9 129. 9 121. 6 130. 9 132. 4 157. 7 122. 7 194. 6 154. 2 120. 3 138. 3 125. 4 140. 9 132. 9 127. 7 142. 5 124. 3 136. 5 128. 8 130. 5 127. 5 133. 7 17. 7 13. 2 821. 1 932. 0 928. 3 953. 1 988. 3 836. 4 938. 8 982. 7 855. 8 1020. 1 861. 0 861. 3 944. 5 756. 0 803. 4 885. 8 808. 0 877. 2 948. 4 883. 1 736. 4 909. 1 793. 4 980. 894. 1 897. 1 916. 9 777. 0 910. 7 895. 3 792. 6 948. 9 856. 8 820. 2 817. 0 756. 8 1012. 5 899. 8 947. 7 854. 8 838. 0 890. 2 968. 3 878. 6 878. 1 885. 0 904. 3 884. 6 847. 1 829. 1 742. 2 905. 7 877. 2 71. 0 8. 1 110. 6 112. 4 104. 1 187. 2 208. 3 109. 9 158. 0 155. 6 122. 7 153. 2 132. 2 138. 0 109. 7 89. 4 129. 9 112. 9 111. 2 116. 5 105. 2 129. 7 125. 9 143. 3 127. 4 143. 4 105. 5 165. 6 131. 8 151. 7 105. 7 99. 7 119. 2 123. 2 104. 2 158. 4 141. 8 154. 9 92. 0 92. 9 157. 3 119. 6 118. 9 135. 4 133. 5 122. 6 133. 9 169. 9 153. 5 138. 2 92. 8 133. 5 108. 8 140. 5 126. 9 28. 8 22. 7 1108. 1 1200. 4 1213. 8 1321. 7 1390. 1136. 3 1268. 9 1324. 7 1136. 1 1366. 6 1169. 4 1172. 0 1205. 9 1008. 3 1092. 3 1162. 3 1078. 0 1158. 2 1241. 0 1202. 3 1022. 6 1207. 5 1073. 9 1280. 8 1156. 8 1266. 5 1229. 8 1101. 3 1174. 0 1184. 5 1117. 2 1265. 7 1143. 1 1137. 6 1142. 0 1082. 2 1298. 1 1149. 0 1358. 9 1168. 9 1119. 9 1209. 4 1277. 0 1198. 6 1190. 0 1211. 8 1250. 9 1181. 0 1125. 2 1116. 8 1022. 0 1220. 1 1182. 8 87. 0 7. 4 12 Table-2 Decadal mean (% departure from normal), frequency of drought and flood years Decadal mean DECADE Per cent departure from normal 1901-10 1911-20 1921-30 1931-40 1941-50 1951-60 1961-70 1971-80 1981-90 1991-2000 2001-2003 -2. -2. 5 -0. 4 1. 7 3. 3 2. 5 -0. 1 -0. 8 -0. 3 0. 6 -5. 9 3 4 1 1 1 1 2 3 2 0 1 0 3 0 1 1 3 1 1 2 1 0 Freq. of Deficient year Freq. of Excess year 13 Fig. 1 Location of raingauge stations considered for the study 14 Fig. 2. Location of raingauge stations used by IITM (Parthasarathy et al. 1994) 15 R/F IN MM 0. 5 1. 5 2. 5 3. 5 -1 0 1 2 3 -0. 5 -1. 5 1000 1100 -2 500 600 700 800 900 1901 1904 1901 1904 1907 1910 1913 1916 1919 1922 1925 1928 1931 1934 1937 1940 1943 1946 1949 1952 1955 1958 1961 1964 1967 1970 1973 1976 1979 1982 1985 1988 1991 1994 1997 2000 2003 YEAR 1907 1910 1913 1916 1919 1922 1925 928 1931 1934 1937 1940 1943 1946 1949 IITM(Parthosarothy Series) series and the new IMD series Fig. 3. Comparison between IITM South-West monsoon seasonal rainfall Fig. 4. The 31 year moving averages of all India south-west monsoon seasonal rainfall 16 1952 1955 1958 1961 1964 1967 1970 1973 1976 1979 1982 1985 IMD series 1988 1991 1994 1997 2000 2003 PERCENTAGE DEPARTURE -4 0 1 2 3 4 1901 -6 -4 -2 0 2 4 PERCENTAGE DEPARTURE 6 8 1901 1904 1907 1910 1913 1916 1919 1922 1925 1928 1931 1934 1937 1940 1943 1946 1949 1952 1955 1958 1961 1964 1967 1970 1973 1976 1979 1982 1985 1988 1991 1994 1997 2000 2003 3 -2 -1 1991-2000 1904 1907 1910 1913 1916 1919 1922 1925 1928 1931 1934 1937 1940 1943 1946 1949 1952 1955 YEAR 2001-03 1901-10 -8. 0 31 YEAR MOVING AVERAGE ALL INDIA AUGUST RAINFALL 1981-90 -6. 0 YEAR 1958 1961 1964 1967 1970 1973 1976 1979 1982 1985 1988 1991 1994 1997 2000 2003 1971-80 -4. 0 -2. 0 1961-70 1951-60 1941-50 1931-40 192 1-30 1911-20 31 YEAR MOVING AVERAGE ALL INDIA JUNE RAINFAL DECADAL MEANS OF ALL INDIA SUMMER MONSOON RAINFALL (% DEPARTURE FROM MEAN) (June, July, August, September) Fig. 5. 31 year moving average of all India rainfall for the four monsoon months Fig 6.Decadal means of all India summer monsoon rainfall (% departure from mean) 17 -4 1901 1904 1907 1910 1913 1916 1919 1922 1925 1928 1931 1934 1937 1940 1943 1946 1949 YEAR 1952 1955 1958 1961 1964 1967 1970 1973 1976 1979 1982 1985 1988 1991 1994 1997 2000 2003 -3 -2 -1 0 PERCENTAGE DEPARTURE PERCENTAG E DEPAR TURE 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 -3 1901 1904 1907 1910 1913 1916 1919 1922 1925 1928 1931 1934 1937 1940 1943 1946 1949 YEAR 1952 1955 1958 1961 1964 1967 1970 1973 1976 1979 1982 1985 1988 1991 1994 1997 2000 2003 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 0. 0 2. 0 4. 0 31 YEAR MOVING AVERAGE ALL INDIA JULY RAINFALL 1 YEAR MOVING AVERAGE ALL INDIA SEPTEMBER RAINFALL June DECADAL MEANS OF ALL INDIA JUNE RAINFALL (% DEPARTURE FROM MEAN) -8. 0 1901-10 1911-20 1911-2 0 1921-30 1921-30 1931-40 1931-40 DECADE -6. 0 -4. 0 -2. 0 0. 0 2. 0 4. 0 6. 0 8. 0 10. 0 12. 0 -15. 0 1901-10 July DECADAL MEANS OF ALL INDIA JULY RAINFALL (%DEPARTURE FROM MEAN) -10. 0 -5. 0 0. 0 5. 0 10. 0 1941-50 1941-50 Decade DECADE 1951-60 1951-60 1961-70 1961-70 1971-80 1971-80 1981-90 1981-90 1991-2000 1991-2000 2001-03 2001-03 August DECADAL MEANS OF ALL INDIA AUGUST RAINFALL (% DEPARTURER FROM MEAN) -8. 1901-10 -6. 0 -4. 0 -2. 0 0. 0 2. 0 4. 0 6. 0 -10. 0 1901-10 -5. 0 0. 0 Septermber DECADAL MEANS OF ALL INDIA SEPTEMBER RAINFALL (%DEPARTURE FROM MEAN) 5. 0 10. 0 15. 0 20. 0 1911-20 1911-20 1921-30 1921-30 1931-40 DECADE 1931-40 1941-50 1941-50 1951-60 1951-60 1961-70 1961-70 1971-80 1971-80 1981-90 1981-90 1991-2000 1991-2000 2001-03 2001-03 Fig. 7. Decadal means of all India rainfall (% departure from mean) for the month of June, July, August and September 25. 0 20. 0 15. 0 10. 0 5. 0 0. 0 -5. 0 -10. 0 -15. 0 ALL INDIA MONSOON R. F -20. 0 -25. 1901 1904 1907 1910 1913 1 916 1919 1922 1925 1928 1931 1934 1937 1940 1943 1946 1949 1952 1955 1958 1961 1964 1967 1970 1973 1976 1979 1982 1985 1988 1991 1994 1997 2000 2003 Nine point gaussian filter PERCENTAGE DEPARTURE YEAR Fig. 8. All India Monsoon rainfall and its nine point Gaussian filter 18 Fig. 9. Increase/Decrease in rainfall in mm in 100 year for each of 36 subdivisions for the monsoon months. Different levels of significance are shaded with colors 19 Fig. 10. Increase/Decrease in rainfall in mm in 100 year for each of 36 subdivisions for the south-west monsoon season.Different levels of significance are shaded with colors 20 Fig. 11. Increase/Decrease in rainfall in percentage in 100 years in monthly contribution of rainfall to annual rainfall for each of the four monsoon months for 36 subdivisions 21 Fig. 12. Increase/Decrease in rainfall in mm in 100 year in each of 36 subdivisions for the winter, pre-monsoon, post-monsoon seasons and annual. Different levels of significance are shaded with co lors 22 N C C RESEARCH REPORTS New statistical models for long range forecasting of southwest monsoon rainfall over India, M. Rajeevan, D. S. Pai and Anil Kumar Rohilla, Sept. 2005. 23